PLAYBOOK ENGINE · TECHNICAL REFERENCE

1,504

Playbook Combos

Event Types

Niche Overlays

30+

Research Citations

Engine 02 · Playbook

Counter-strategy generated instantly for every prediction.

For every prediction, the Playbook Engine returns a complete response strategy tailored to the competitor's archetype and your revenue tier. 47 event types × 8 archetypes × 4 revenue tiers = 1,504 unique playbook combinations. Multi-step chess sequences — not generic one-liners.

Section 01

Knowledge Base Scale

The KB is pre-computed at build time and hydrated with live competitor context at query time. Each event type × 8 archetypes × 4 revenue tiers = 32 response cells per event.

21 Core Events

21 core signal event types, each covered with archetype- and tier-specific responses across all scenarios.

12 Compound Playbooks

Dedicated entries for each of the 12 compound signal rule triggers. Richer context, higher-urgency actions.

3 Temporal Trees

Day-1, Day-7, and Day-14+ decision branches. Each branch carries distinct immediate_actions and signals_to_watch.

3 Counter-Escalation Chains

Price match, loyalty launch, and invisible moves — pre-computed multi-step sequences for the most common escalation scenarios.

Section 02

8 Niche Context Overlays

Niche-specific action layers that override or augment the base KB entry. Each overlay carries category-specific benchmarks, CAC data, and margin targets.

Supplements

Apparel

Skincare

Home

Pet

Food & Beverage

Fitness

Accessories

Section 03

Playbook Entry Anatomy

Every playbook entry contains 8 structured fields. Each field is populated with archetype- and tier-calibrated content — not templated strings.

immediate_actions

List of actions with rationale and effort level (low / medium / high). Executed in the first 72 hours.

medium_term_actions

Actions with rationale and timeline. Executed over 7–30 days.

avoid

Explicit list of moves that backfire for this scenario. Counter-intuitive exclusions calibrated per archetype.

budget_guidance

Allocation percentage, channel priority list, and rationale. Tied to your revenue tier.

urgency

critical / high / medium / low — mapped from the upstream prediction confidence tier.

expected_outcome

if_executed vs. if_ignored narratives. Concrete projections, not generic outcomes.

signals_to_watch

What to monitor after acting. Closes the feedback loop back into the Prediction Engine.

competitive_chess

Full second-order reasoning layer. Sequence plays, escalation risk, trap moves, endgame.

Section 04

Competitive Chess Layer

The competitive_chess field expands into 6 components that model second-order consequences. Built for founders who think three moves ahead.

sequence_plays

If-then-then move chains with response_probability (0–1), response_timeframe, your_counter, confidence, and reasoning.

escalation_risk

Level (none / low / medium / high / critical), trigger, escalation_path, how_to_avoid, and archetype_specific_note.

signal_visibility

Whether your move is visible to the competitor, how they detect it, detection_timeframe, and whether visibility helps / hurts / is neutral.

trap_moves

Explicit list of moves that invite retaliation — the moves the playbook tells you not to make.

endgame

Where this competitive thread plays out long-term — category ownership, margin compression, exit signals.

ignore_if

Conditions under which you should not act at all — preventing over-response to competitor noise.

Section 05

Archetype Response Probabilities

Calibrated response likelihoods per archetype. Used by the competitive chess layer to model if-then-then sequences and set escalation risk levels.

commodity_competitor

Matches price within 72h

~70%

data_rich_faceless

Replicates winning moves in 2–4 weeks

~80%

ag1_like

Will NOT match price. Will escalate on authority challenges in 2–4 weeks

~0% price match

glossier_like

Price attack response negligible; community trust attack response within 7–14 days

~0.03 / ~0.85

liquid_death_like

Price attack response negligible; aesthetic imitation response within 14 days

~0.02 / ~0.90

warby_parker_like

Minimal price match; minimum 3–6 week lag due to channel conflict

~0.10 / 3–6w lag

Section 06

30+ Hard-Data Research Citations

Every recommendation is grounded in published research. Citations are embedded directly into playbook entries — not footnotes.

EMAIL_ROI

$36–40 return per dollar spent

SMS_ROI

$21–71 return per dollar spent

LOYALTY_ROI

5.2× average; 7.2× top programs

RETENTION_MATH

5% retention increase = 25–95% profit lift

STOCKOUT_SWITCH_RATE

65% permanent brand switch after stockout

COMPOUND_SIGNAL

+23–41pp accuracy over single-signal detection

SUPPLEMENT_CAC

$89 average customer acquisition cost

BEAUTY_GROSS_MARGIN

60%+ gross margin benchmark

PET_LTV_CAC

12:1 LTV to CAC ratio

FOOD_BEV_FREQUENCY

5.8 purchases per customer per year

APPAREL_TIKTOK_CAC

30–50% lower than Meta acquisition cost

+ 19 more

Category-specific benchmarks across supplements, apparel, skincare, home, pet, food & beverage, fitness, and accessories.

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